Market Analysis without the Wall Street Hope and Hype

My Purpose

The purpose of this site is to provide investors with a place where they can obtain truthful, non biased, factual information about the financial markets. My primary focus is on the stock market, specifically the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, the Gold market, the Dollar and T-Bonds. The information presented in this site is based on technical analysis.   It is not based on the Hope and Hype heard by the so-called mainstream "analysts." 

My Record

In the Summer of 2001 I did a research paper that suggested with almost certainty we were about to see a major decline take place in the stock market.  Based on history,  my study suggested a 100% probability of a move below the 1998 4-year cycle lows.  This has recently happened in the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Utility Average, the Dow Jones Transportation Average,  the New York Composite Index, the Russell 1000 and the Wilshire 5000.  In my research paper I said that the Dow Jones Industrial Average would  close below 7,400 in the Fall of 2002. This documentation was published in the November 2001 issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities Magazine.  If you would like a copy of this article, please make an e-mail request.

In July 2001 I said the Dow Jones Industrial Average would close below 7,400 in the Fall of 2002.  Again, This was published in the November 2001 issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities Magazine.

In both my April and May 2002 newsletters I warned that we had a 97% probability, based on history, that the stock market was about to move below the September 2001 lows.  This forecast has obviously proved to be correct. 

In the May 2002 newsletter I warned that I felt the seasonal cycle in the U.S. Dollar had occurred as well as the 4-year cycle top.  I further warned that based on my studies of cycles we had a 100% probability of a move below 111 in the U.S. Dollar.  This has recently happened.

In the June 2002 newsletter I stated, "we are about to see the bear market accelerate."  This obviously happened as well.

In the July 2002 newsletter I said "If you are still long stocks I would GET OUT."  This was a timely call as well.

In the October 2002 newsletter I said "Expect the Bear to get Nasty again as the Dow moves into the 4-year cycle low, due between November 15, 2002 and January 17, 2003. This low should take the Dow below 7,400 and most likely into the mid 6000 range!" 

We got the close below 7,400.  October 2002 did mark the 4-year cycle bottom, but the mid 6000 range was not seen.  Because of the lack of technical confirmation surrounding the October 2002 low, there had been some question as to whether this really was the 4-year cycle low.   I said back in October 2002 that if this low did mark the 4-year cycle low, it was the weakest 4-year cycle low on record.  I say this because we did not get the deeply oversold readings that are normally seen at such important lows.  Without these deeply oversold readings to provide the foundation for the 2003 rally, it makes the sustainability of the rally questionable.  

I have to ask:  Do you know anyone else who had documented forecasts one year in advance, warning about the sell-off in the equity markets in 2002?  Did your broker or money manager ever once tell you this was going to happen?  Did the "analysts" on CNBC warn you?  What about the "experts" on Fox or CNN?  I can assure you they did not see this coming.  They do not know where we are going from here and if they did, they would not tell you!  

I have also developed a very unique indicator that has become the cornerstone of my analysis in regard to market turns.  I call this indicator the "Cycle Turn Indicator."  It was originally developed to help identify the 10 and 22-week cycle tops and bottoms in the stock market and it works great.  I then found that it works on other markets and even other timeframes.  I used this indicator to call the decline in energy prices in July 2006 as prices were still at or very near their high as well as the low that followed in January 2007.  This indicator also called the decline in gold in both May 2006 and again in July 2006. This indicator called the low in bonds at the May/June 2006 lows as well as the high that followed in December.  In addition, this indicator called the June 2007 low in bonds as well.  The intermediate term Cycle Turn Indicator also called the top in the stock market back in May 2006 as well as the June/July 2006 lows in which the 2006 summer rally was born and I said at that time "The Summer Rally has Begun."   This indicator remained on a buy into December 2006 and gave its sell in early February 2007.  Then, for the week ending March 23, 2007, the Cycle Turn Indicator was back on a buy as the 4-year cycle began to stretch yet again.  This indicator is without a doubt the best and most important tool I have ever found.  

My Long Term Forecast

Because of record bullishness and manipulative efforts to keep air in the bubble, the current 4-year cycle has continued to stretch.  In fact, this is one of the longest cycles in stock market history.   In my work with the 4-year cycle there are two distinctly different data sets.  One, provides me with statistical norms and averages surrounding the 4-year cycle.  This data gives us a "yard stick" with which we can measure current and future cycles.   Secondly, I have a number of very specific "markers" that are used to identify 4-year cycle lows.  In fact, these markers have been present at every 4-year cycle low since 1896.  One of the many important aspects of these markers is that they tell me when the 4-year cycle has topped and when the 4-year cycle has bottomed.  Many proclaim that the June/July 2006 lows or that the March 2007 low marked the 4-year cycle low.  None of the historical markers that have occurred at ALL previous 4-year cycle lows were present at either of these lows.  Thus, all indications are that the 4-year cycle advance out of the 2002 low is still intact.  Yes, this no doubt makes this among the longest cycles ever.   As an example, since 1896 there have been 27 completed 4-year cycles.  The average duration of these 27 cycles has been 47 months.  Of these 27 cycles, 13 have extended beyond 47 months.  This makes sense in that half of the cycles have extended beyond the 47 month average and half have been shorter.  Of the 13 cycles that have run longer than the 47 month average, the data reveals that the average duration of these cycles has been 54 months.  From the October 2002 4-year cycle low to the October 2007 high is 60 months.  As of the January 2008 low this cycle has run a total duration of 63 month.   Since 1896 there have only been one other 4-year cycle that has stretched to this duration.   The engineered low that occurred with the March retest of the January low may ultimately prove to mark the current 4-year cycle low.  This is now in the process of either being confirmed of disaffirmed.   Regardless of where and when this 4-year cycle low ultimately proves to bottom, the powers that be and their manipulative methods to "manage" the economy is only setting us up for a much worse train wreck down the road.   The statistics tell us what "should be" expected, but the Cycle Turn Indicator tells us "what is."   It is very important to know when this cycle low is confirmed and to monitor the health of its advance. The Cycle Turn Indicator will be our guide. 

My Methods

My technical studies are based on my knowledge of both Market Cycles and Dow Theory.  My knowledge of cycles is based on the methods I learned from Walter Bressert.  My knowledge of Dow Theory has come from my studies of the original works of Charles H. Dow, William Peter Hamilton, Robert Rhea, E. George Schaefer, Sparta Fritz Jr, A.M. Shumate, Charles B. Stansbury and Richard Russell. If you are familiar with these names you should realize that I believe in the old traditional methods of market analysis.  It is obvious to me that these are the best tools available to market students today. Yet, I find that these tools are overlooked and/or forgotten today when they are most needed.

I have found that when combining my methods of Market Cycle analysis with Dow Theory, the results are astounding.  To give an example of this powerful combination, back in July 1999 the Dow Jones Industrial Average made new highs, but they were not confirmed by the Dow Jones Transportation Average.  This was the 1st Dow Theory warning.   In August 1999 the DJIA moved higher into the next trading cycle top, but still not being confirmed by the DJTA.  This was the second warning.  In September of 1999 the DJIA moved below the previous trading cycle low (August 1999) thus confirming the down side action of the DJTA. This was the third Dow Theory warning.  In January 2000 the DJIA pushes even higher into the weekly cycle top while the DJTA fades.  My methods of Market Cycle analysis then confirmed the primary bear market signal given by Dow Theory in February 2000 as the DJIA broke down below the October 1999 seasonal cycle low. 

In June of 2001 I did a long term study of the Dow going back to 1896.  This study was an analysis of the 4-year cycle.  As a result of this study I found that based on the historical characteristics of the 4-year cycle, the stage was set for a major move down in the stock market.  At this time, I knew that I had truly discovered a powerful combination that no one else is using.  My cycles work confirmed the Bearish signal given by Dow Theory.  I then sent this study to Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities Magazine and it was published in the November 2001 issue.  An extremely short summary of this research suggested that the current 4-year cycle would move down below the 1998 4-year cycle low close at 7,615 on the Dow and 969 on the S&P 500. This has already happened on the S&P and I feel the Dow will soon follow.  In short, I called for the 2002 decline, over a year in advance, using my Cyclical methods combined with Dow Theory.  If you would like a reprint of my  November 2001 article from Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities Magazine, please e-mail me your request.   

Next, I applied my Cycles theories to the Dollar, Gold and Bonds.  This was an attempt to use inter-market analysis to further confirm the economic outlook. My theory was that if the stock market was to be going down, these other segments of the economy should confirm this from a cyclical perspective.  I found that the Dollar was topping out and should start to decline into it's 4-year cycle low.  I found that Gold was forming a major bottom,  the 9-year cycle bottom, and was to be moving up.  Thus far, the Cyclical outlook for the Dow was confirmed by the cyclical outlook of the Dollar.  The Cyclical outlook of the Dollar was confirmed by that of Gold.  Bonds are now setting up for a move into their 3-year cycle low.  So,  I think Bonds are also confirming the other Cyclical setups.  This research was published by Traders World, Spring 2002.  See http://www.tradersworld.com/

More current research is available monthly in Cycles News & Views.  With a subscription to Cycles News & Views also comes access to my shorter-term market commentary and proprietary turn indicators.  This newsletter service is a very in-depth service and is not your average 3 or 4 page newsletter.  Cycles News & Views provides comprehensive research based on Dow theory and trend quantifications, known as cycles, and most importantly the market direction based on my proprietary Cycle Turn Indicator.   I also have a very detailed presentation on the current 4-year cycle that is available to all subscribers. 

Contact Information

To e-mail Tim Wood click here

or  the mailing address is:

Tim Wood

1545 Gulf Shores Parkway, PMB # 251

Gulf Shores, AL   36542

251-955-2327

or

251-213-1990

    Please include your e-mail address with all payments.

Subscription Information

Subscribe now and get 12 monthly issues with web based updates 3 nights a week.  All for $250.00 per year.

Select the Monthly subscription plan at $24.95 per month. 

Annual subscriptions can be mailed by Check or Money Order to:

Tim Wood

1545 Gulf Shores Parkway, PMB # 251

Gulf Shores, AL   36542

251-955-2327

This service is intended to be educational in nature and is not meant to be specific investment advise.

All sales are final.

Educational Material

If you are looking for hard-to-find books on Stock Trading, Commodity Trading, Cycles, or any other market related books. They offer new, out-of-print, and rare books on the stock and commodity markets. Try their helpful assistance and fast service.   Contact L & S Trading toll free at 641-475-3212, or e-mail L & S Trading at LS@LS-Trading.com.

Related Sites

You will need Adobe Acrobat to view some Articles and Newsletters

© 2007 Cycles News & Views; All Rights Reserved

Click Below To Contact the Web Master

Cycles man

Last Updated Friday April 18, 2008