My Methods

My technical studies are based on my knowledge of both Market Cycles and Dow Theory. My knowledge of cycles is based on the methods I learned from Walter Bressert. My knowledge of Dow Theory has come from my studies of the original works of Charles H. Dow, William Peter Hamilton, Robert Rhea, E. George Schaefer, and Richard Russell. If you are familiar with these names you should realize that I believe in the old traditional methods of market analysis. It is obvious to me that these are the best tools available to market students today. Yet, I find that these tools are overlooked and/or forgotten today when they are most needed.

In short, I use the Dow Theory and the longer-term cycles to paint the longer-term picture. Cycle analysis is simply a method of analyzing various trends of various degrees. I then data mining techniques to develop high probability expectation for the future. Then, I use the intermediate-term and short-term statistics along with the Cycle Turn Indicator to guide me as the longer-term picture unfolds.

These methods were used to call the 2000 top in the stock markets as well as the projections for the 2002 4-year cycle low. I also identified the top in housing using these methods in 2005. I continue to use these same methods today. These methods allowed me to identify the stretched 4-year cycle in the equity markets that finally topped in 2007 as well as what I now believe was the 4-year cycle low in January 2008. Then, as the equity markets advanced out of the January 2007 lows I was able to warn my subscribers that we were facing a potential 1930's cyclical scenario. These same statistical methods were also used to call the 2008 low in the dollar as well as the 2008 top in commodities. This is all documented in my newsletters.

More current research is available monthly with a subscription to Cycles News & Views. With a subscription to Cycles News & Views also comes access to my shorter-term market commentary and proprietary turn indicators. My service is not the average 3 to 5 page newsletter. It is a very detailed in-depth research document that averages some 20 pages. Cycles News & Views provides comprehensive research based on Dow theory and trend quantifications, known as cycles, and most importantly the market direction based on my proprietary Cycle Turn Indicator.